This isn’t really news, but some political scientists got together this weekend in Washington, DC to predict the outcome of this November’s election and guess what, they think the Democrats are going to get their asses handed to them.
I know that the political wisdom is that the energy is with the Republicans and that Democrats are going to swept out of power. The conventional thinking is that the Democrats will lose the House and possibly the Senate, but I don’t buy it.
I think the polling is way off. I think the media is hyping the made-up belief that there’s going to be this massive anti-incumbent wave that will wash the Democrats out of power. However, I don’t believe that voters are pissed off about health care reform. Obama and the Democrats campaigned on health care reform and they did it. I don’t believe voters are angry about financial regulatory reform, or ending the war in Iraq, or spending money to jumpstart the economy, or that they’re worried about the rich man’s taxes.
These are all GOP talking points and the media just loves to trumpet GOP talking points.
If you go to a Tea Party rally, yeah, you’re going to find a bunch of pissed and paranoid white people. But if you spread these Tea Partiers out across the country, they make up a slim minority. There was more opposition to the Iraq war in 2003, before the invasion, than there are Tea Partiers today. When we rallied for peace on the streets of New York, San Fransisco and Seattle there were literally hundreds of thousands of people marching. Nobody needed to over-inflate the number of people protesting the invasion because we didn’t have to, but did we stop the war in Iraq? No. Did we win the elections in 2004? No.
I’m prepared to be wrong, but I’m convinced that a lot of talking heads, political scientists and pollsters are going to be left scratching their heads over the results in November. The real voters out there, those who don’t get on TV, they’re going to turn out.
Political Scientists Forecast Big Losses For Democrats In 2010 Midterm Elections